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原標題:“動態清零”是上海抗疫最佳方案

原標題:“動態清零”是上海抗疫最佳方案

本帖最後由 摳腳大仙 於 2022-5-30 10:19 編輯

  “當前,上海的疫情形勢比較嚴峻、複雜,堅定執行‘動態清零’是最佳選擇,也是最佳方案。”4月10日,國家衛健委疫情應對處置工作領導小組專家組組長、清華大學萬科公共衛生與健康學院常務副院長梁萬年說。上海市本輪疫情有何特點?防控的難點在哪兒?實行“動態清零”有何意義?記者在上海採訪了梁萬年。
  採取更果斷堅定的防控措施
  “上海本輪疫情流行的毒株主要是奧密克戎BA.2,傳播速度非常快,隱匿性特別強,也就是無症狀感染者和輕症病例占比非常高,大大增加了疫情防控的難度。”梁萬年說,目前上海市的16個區大部分社區都有感染者,存在著廣泛的社區傳播。所以,單獨依靠過去的疫情防控措施,很難快速控制住疫情。因此,必須要採取更果斷堅定的措施。
  上海市是2500萬人口的國際化大都市,國內、國際交往極為頻繁。“上海既要防止市內疫情擴散,又要防止外溢到其他省份,還要防止境外輸入,防控壓力很大。”梁萬年認為,當前,上海市疫情防控最重要的是防止市內擴散和反彈。對這麼大一個城市進行疫情防控,無論採取什麼措施,比如全員核酸檢測,對於城市的組織能力、管理能力等都是巨大的考驗。
  “統一思想,堅定信心,團結起來才能戰勝來勢兇猛的疫情。”梁萬年說,上海市從基層群眾到基層組織,再到區級和市級政府,必須形成一個有效的系統,共同防控疫情。
  “在保護人民的生命和健康免受病毒侵害的同時,要保障群眾的基本生產和生活。”梁萬年認為,平衡疫情防控和群眾基本生活及經濟社會發展,是上海這樣的大城市面臨的重要課題。所以,疫情防控必須更快速、更精准、更有效。
  上海市的疫情防控策略和措施正在發揮作用。梁萬年分析,雖然上海市報告的感染者數量處於高位震盪,但按照奧密克戎變異毒株流行的指數型增長的參數來看,沒有出現指數型上升態勢,表明採取的防控措施遏制住了指數型上升的勢頭。“上海疫情處在關鍵時期和膠著狀態,不進則退。要牢牢抓住這個時間窗口,大家一起努力,共同戰勝疫情。”
  把生命和健康放在第一位
  奧密克戎變異株不是“大號流感”,危害性比流感大很多。梁萬年認為,與流感相比,奧密克戎變異株傳播速度更快,傳播的隱匿性更強,更容易造成大範圍的傳播。更重要的是,奧密克戎變異株致病性明顯比流感大。從全球看,如果放任病毒流行,奧密克戎變異株總體病死率比流感要高,特別是老年人群,病死率比普通流感高出幾十倍,80歲以上老年人甚至高出近百倍。
  “從公共衛生的角度看,全人群都是奧密克戎變異株的易感人群。我國老年人口數量龐大,一些大城市人口老年化率較高。如果‘躺平’,疫情對這類脆弱人群就是一場災難。”梁萬年說,奧密克戎變異株還會不斷變異,如果向壞的方向變異,對人類健康危害就會更大。此外,如果出現大規模感染,人們會出現恐慌,造成醫療資源擠兌,讓正常的就醫需求無法得到保證。所以,我國對奧密克戎變異株採取“動態清零”的總方針是科學、有效的。
  梁萬年說,應對奧密克戎變異株,一些國家採取“躺平”策略,放任病毒感染,對居民的生命、健康和社會生產造成了巨大危害。我國堅持“動態清零”,一方面是“人民至上、生命至上”防疫理念的指導;另一方面,我國有能力、有基礎。我國本土總體上“乾淨”,社會主義制度具有強大的組織動員能力,群眾積極主動配合,加上豐富的抗疫經驗和各種科學工具,有能力實現“動態清零”。
  梁萬年認為,我國堅持“動態清零”,是盡一切努力來維護人民身體健康和生命安全,同時盡一切可能有效精准平衡疫情防控和正常生產生活及經濟社會發展。為了實現“動態清零”,對一部分群眾進行管控,對他們的生產生活帶來不便,但只要快速控制住疫情,可以換取更長時間的正常生產生活和更大範圍甚至全國的正常生產生活。“要堅持‘動態清零’總方針不動搖,以最小的成本獲取最大的效益。”
  “動態清零”的精髓是快速、精准
  “動態清零”並不是零容忍、追求完全零感染。梁萬年說,“動態清零”是我國抗擊疫情的總方針,也是2020年以來我國經歷前後幾十起各類新冠病毒變異株引起的聚集性疫情,總結出的一套戰略性打法。實踐反復證明,“動態清零”符合我國實際,也是抗擊疫情的最佳選擇。“動態清零”的核心內涵是出現疫情後,能夠快速發現它,並快速圍堵它,切斷傳播過程,實現發現一起,撲滅一起,不造成持續性社區傳播,其精髓就是快速、精准,跑在病毒傳播的前面。
  上海具備“動態清零”的能力。梁萬年分析,只要把傳染源控制住,切斷傳播途徑,保護易感人群,就可以實現“動態清零”。如今,我們有核酸檢測和抗原自測技術,抗疫的武器更為強大,能儘早將感染者識別出來。上海有豐富的醫療資源,加上全國各地的支援,能夠做到對感染者和可能的感染者進行有效收治和隔離。此外,隨著疫苗接種不斷推進,易感人群將得到進一步保護。
  上海疫情什麼時候出現社會面“動態清零”?梁萬年認為,這基於防控措施的進一步落實落地。目前,全市在對居民進行多輪核酸檢測篩查,目的就是把傳染源都找出來,並做好隔離和救治,管理好密切接觸者,切斷傳播途徑。當所有傳染源都做好了隔離和救治,新增的感染者都來自監測人員,就實現了社會面“動態清零”。
  “上海人民對抗疫措施的高度支持,讓我們感動。”梁萬年說,在上海的幾天調研中,無論是封控、管控,還是核酸檢測、抗原檢測,群眾都積極配合,給他留下了深刻印象。梁萬年表示,上海市民一定要堅定信心,不要恐慌,也不要焦慮,要理解和相信黨和政府的抗疫策略和方式。大家要注意防護,保護好自己的身體健康,飲食和睡眠要規律。如果今後按照防範區、管控區、封控區進行分類管理,防範區14天沒有陽性感染者,居民可以有一定的活動範圍,但要減少不必要的聚集,同時做好個人防護。“大家再堅持一段時間,相信曙光很快會出現。”梁萬年說。
CDC warns against cruises, regardless of vaccination status
MIAMI (AP) — The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned people on Thursday not to go on cruises, regardless of their vaccination status, because of onboard outbreaks fueled by the omicron variant.

The CDC said it has more than 90 cruise ships under investigation or observation as a result of COVID-19 cases. The agency did not disclose the number of infections.

“The virus that causes COVID-19 spreads easily between people in close quarters on board ships, and the chance of getting COVID-19 on cruise ships is very high,” even if people are fully vaccinated and have received a booster, the CDC said.

The Cruise Lines International Association said it was disappointed with the new recommendations, saying the industry was singled out despite the fact it follows stricter health protocols than other travel sectors.

The decision “is particularly perplexing considering that cases identified on cruise ships consistently make up a very slim minority of the total population onboard,” a statement said. “The majority of those cases are asymptomatic or mild in nature, posing little to no burden on medical resources onboard or onshore.”

In March 2020, as the coronavirus took hold in the U.S., the CDC put a halt to all cruises for what turned out to be 15 months. Last June, it allowed ships to resume sailing under new strict new conditions.

In August, as the delta variant surged, the agency warned people who are at risk of severe illness despite being vaccinated not to go on cruises.

The CDC on Thursday also recommended that passengers get tested and quarantine for five days after docking, regardless of their vaccination status and even if they have no symptoms.

Omicron has sent cases skyrocketing to unprecedented levels across the U.S., including Florida, the hub of the nation’s cruise industry. The state set another record this week for new daily cases, with more than 58,000 recorded Wednesday.

U.S. cruise lines have not announced any plans to halt trips, though vessels have been denied entry at some foreign ports.

Carnival Corp.’s spokesman Roger Frizzell said in an email after the CDC recommendation that the company had no planned changes.

“Our enhanced health and safety protocols have proven to be effective time and time again over the past year,” he said.

Before the CDC announcement, Royal Caribbean Group said in a statement that omicron is leading to passenger cancelations and changes to itineraries, but it is causing “significantly less severe symptoms than earlier variants.”

The company said that since cruising restarted in U.S. waters last spring, 1.1 million guests had traveled with its cruise lines and 1,745 people had tested positive for COVID-19, or about 0.16%.

It said that 41 people required hospitalization, and that no passengers hit with omicron had been taken to the hospital.

“We don’t like to see even one case, but our experience is a fraction of the comparable statistics of virtually any other comparable location or industry. Few businesses are subject to such intense scrutiny, regulation and disclosure requirements by so many authorities,” said Richard Fain, CEO of Royal Caribbean.

Most cruise lines require adult passengers to show proof of vaccination against COVID-19. Ships are allowed to relax measures such as mask use if at least 95% of passengers and 95% of crew are fully vaccinated.

Iris Krysty, 76, of Hamburg, New Jersey, and her husband are supposed to leave on a 10-day Caribbean cruise Jan. 19. This latest CDC warning leaves travelers like them in an unfair bind, she said. Krysty was told Thursday they can only get a refund if they test positive before the trip. So, they will go to avoid losing thousands of dollars — a decision their daughter and son-in-law are not happy with.

“I know they’re upset about us going but that’s a lot of money for us to lose,” Krysty said. “As far as we know, we’re going and hope we’ll be OK.”

Janine Calfo, 55, of Salt Lake City, put off a four-day Carnival cruise from Long Beach, California, to Ensenada, Mexico, earlier this month when she got a breakthrough case of COVID-19 three days before departure. She rebooked the cruise for February and is still set on going.

“This is my own personal opinion, but it looks like the omicron is going to be a quick burn,” said Calfo, who is asthmatic and plans to get the booster in a couple of weeks. “My cruise is over 40 days away.”

She added, though: “I think I will plan on getting travel insurance this time.”
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